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Cal-Maine Foods CEO Sherman Miller said Sept. 30 that several indicators point to a possible rebalancing of U.S. conventional egg supply and demand. The company cannot predict when the oversupply depressing wholesale prices will end, and Miller cautioned that the indicators do not establish that a market turn has begun.
Cal-Maine Foods sees signs that U.S. conventional egg supply and demand may be moving toward balance, CEO Sherman Miller told investors on Sept. 30, citing a smaller-than-expected hen flock and fewer chicks hatched from breeder eggs. But the company cannot predict when the oversupply will end, and Miller said the indicators do not confirm that prices or the market have turned.
Miller pointed to figures in the American Egg Board’s September industry report. The board estimated the U.S. layer-hen flock at 336 million to 343 million birds, about 4 million below its earlier estimates. The report also showed breeder-egg chick hatch numbers down 12% year to date and estimated monthly case production over the previous three months edging down to 19.9 million cases from the prior report. These measures suggest some easing in the supply pipeline, but they do not establish how quickly production will respond.
Cal-Maine also cited demand measures as evidence against a broad decline in consumers’ appetite for eggs. Miller said U.S. retail egg volume increased about 4% from January through August compared with the same period a year earlier, citing market-measurement company NielsenIQ. In the four weeks through Aug. 29, sales were slightly higher while the average price per dozen was down about 27%, according to figures he cited. Miller said the company had seen no structural weakness in demand across retail, food service and exports.
The market pressure has hit the company’s conventional shell egg business. Cal-Maine reported conventional shell egg sales of $201.7 million in its first quarter of fiscal 2027, down 59.5% year over year. The company attributed the weak results to low prices amid abundant supply. Miller’s comments describe possible signs of a shift, not a forecast that a recovery has started or a date for one.
Low Egg Prices Pressure Cal-Maine
The supply outlook matters to shoppers, food businesses and egg producers because changes in flock size and production can affect wholesale availability and prices. For Cal-Maine, the largest U.S. egg producer, a sustained period of excess supply can weigh on revenue from conventional shell eggs, as the sharp year-over-year sales decline in its latest reported quarter illustrates. The company’s comments offer investors indicators to watch, but do not establish that its earnings will improve in a particular quarter.
Consumers have seen lower average prices in the recent data Miller cited, which may support purchases. He said affordability and more promotional activity could help consumption during the fall baking and holiday periods. That is the company’s expectation, not a guarantee: retail demand, production and prices may not move in lockstep, and the timing of any change remains uncertain.
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From Shortage to Oversupply
The current glut follows a sharp reversal from conditions a year earlier. An avian influenza outbreak killed more than 145 million U.S. birds, contributing to an egg shortage and sharply higher prices. The later increase in supply has put pressure on prices. The American Egg Board has attributed the oversupply to elevated flock numbers, strong hen productivity and exports that have not absorbed enough production.
Cal-Maine’s remarks came during its first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings call on Sept. 30. The company’s fiscal-quarter sales figure and the board’s flock and production estimates describe different parts of the market: the former reflects Cal-Maine’s reported business, while the latter are industry estimates. Together, they provide a snapshot of supply pressure and potential changes, rather than proof that the market has reached equilibrium.
“These indicators do not establish that the market will turn, but they provide important context on the potential direction of supply.”
— Sherman Miller, Cal-Maine Foods president and CEO, on the Sept. 30 earnings call
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Timing of a Market Turn
No timetable for the glut to end was provided. The flock, hatch and production figures are indicators of possible changes in supply, but Cal-Maine said they do not establish that the market has turned. The source material does not give a forecast for wholesale egg prices or say how quickly fewer breeder-egg chicks would translate into fewer eggs available for sale.
It is also unclear whether recent retail demand and lower prices will persist through the fall and holiday season, or whether food service and export demand will absorb more supply. The cited data covers specific reporting periods and estimates; it cannot by itself show what prices, production or Cal-Maine’s results will be in subsequent quarters.
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Signals to Watch This Fall
The next indications will come from updated measures of the U.S. layer flock, breeder-egg hatch numbers, monthly case production and retail sales. Investors will also be watching Cal-Maine’s next financial results for evidence of how wholesale pricing and conventional egg sales develop after the reported first-quarter decline.
Fall baking and holiday demand may provide a seasonal lift, according to Miller, but the company has not said that this will be enough to eliminate the glut. Until later supply and sales data are available, the rebalancing remains a possibility signaled by industry measures rather than a confirmed market shift.
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Key Questions
What does Cal-Maine mean by egg supply rebalancing?
CEO Sherman Miller said certain supply and demand indicators may be moving closer to balance. He cited a lower-than-previously estimated U.S. layer flock, fewer breeder-egg chicks hatched and a slight decline in estimated monthly case production. He cautioned that these indicators do not confirm a market turn.
Why are egg prices under pressure?
The market has more eggs than buyers are absorbing, according to the report. The American Egg Board attributed the oversupply to elevated flock numbers, strong hen productivity and exports that have not taken up enough production. The glut has depressed wholesale prices.
How has the oversupply affected Cal-Maine?
Cal-Maine reported that conventional shell egg sales fell 59.5% year over year to $201.7 million in its first quarter of fiscal 2027. The company’s CEO said it is too soon to predict when the oversupply will end.
Are egg prices expected to rise soon?
Cal-Maine did not provide a price forecast or a timeline for a market turn. Miller said the supply indicators offer context on a possible direction, but do not establish that the market has turned. Recent retail data he cited showed the average price per dozen down about 27% in the four weeks through Aug. 29.
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